Oil prices will retain steady this year, analysts predicts, 2023 may declines

Oil prices will hold steady for the rest of the year but decline marginally in 2023, according to a group of analysts,though a minority opinion sees crude moving higher before 2022 is through.

Global oil prices skyrocketed to more than $120 per barrel after the Russian-Ukraine war broke out, but have tapered to below $100 per barrel in recent weeks.

Oil prices are currently trading around $95 per barrel for Brent crude, and just below $89 a barrel for the U.S. West Texas Intermediate.

Analysts expect oil prices to hold steady through the second half of 2022, though they said the potential impact of an economic recession has not yet been priced in. In a recession, oil prices tend to fall, which could provide consumers some respite.

Current prices seen holding for rest of year

JPMorgan maintains a modest estimate of $101 a barrel for the rest of the year.

Crude will slip to an average of $101 per barrel in the second half of 2022, said Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan. She projected that the price per barrel would be $98 in 2023.

“Some European governments have amended parts of their sanctions amid fear of rising crude prices, effectively permitting the lifting of Russian crude by European companies,” she said. “With plans to shut Russian oil out of marine insurance market delayed, the impact on Russian supply could be significantly lower than our current projection.”

Other analysts echoed an estimate of a near status quo figure for current oil prices, and projected small declines in 2023.