PVC market analysis

On April 28, the opening price of v2209 contract was 8671, the highest price was 8671, the lowest price was 8536, the open position was 332746, and the final settlement price was 8603. Yesterday's settlement price: 8626, which down: 23, daily trading volume: 578687, deposited capital: 3.158 billion, capital inflow: 77.66 million.

The mainstream transaction price of domestic PVC market continues to be adjusted in a relatively moderate range, but it is relatively weak in some regions. In terms of price comparison, the price in North China fell by 30-50 yuan / ton, that in East China fell by 20 yuan / ton, that in South China fell by 20-30 yuan / ton, while that in Northeast, central and southwest China remained stable. There’s a little change in today's spot market, and the ex factory price of PVC manufacturers is temporarily stable without obvious fluctuation. However, the futures market is relatively weak, especially in the early trading period, so the buy it now price in various regions lacks sufficient support to rise. At present, the buy it now price and point price still coexist in the spot market, the futures are declining in fluctuation, and traders sale at point price in some area shows good performance , so the downstream of the terminal should replenished appropriately and timely. However, we should still keep a cautious attitude towards the hoarding before May Day,because there are few large orders. On the whole, at present, the spot market price is too high to make a deal. The spot and future two markets are not very good,so did the market trading atmosphere. In the South China market, there are few spot prices, and most of them are forward pre-sale.Among them, the basis is unchanged compared with yesterday, with PVC basis 09 + (250-350) in South China and pvc09 + (120-200) in East China. In terms of ethylene, the downward range of some prices is 50-100 yuan / ton.

In terms of Futures: the futures price of pvc09 contract ended the continuous reduction of positions, and the highest position increased by 25000 hands today, but the position was closed to the last 9792 hands in the late trading. Obviously, from the point of view of all day trading, futures are mostly opened in empty, which leads to the decline of futures prices in fluctuations. However, the positions were significantly reduced in the late trading, and the short positions were obviously closed, so the futures prices rose rapidly.In terms of fund flowing, most are hot money, as we said yesterday, the futures market continued to decline, because there was also a lack of powerful speculation points. Therefore, when a large amount of capital flowing in the early stage even did not break 84, the funds admitted today quickly withdrew after eating 100 points in the short term.As tomorrow is the last trading day before the festival, we suggest traders carefully when buying positions and observe the performance of the 8490-8720 range of 09 contract.

From the news, the Ministry of Finance: in order to strengthen the guarantee of energy supply and promote high-quality development, the Tariff Commission of the State Council decided  to implement a provisional import tax rate of zero for coal from May 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023. From the perspective of the supply and demand fundamentals of PVC, the price of calcium carbide is rising at present, but for the situation that the early calcium carbide market did not take a share from the strong continuous upward trend of PVC, the current rise in the ex factory price of calcium carbide may weaken this benefit to a certain extent. Based on the current supply and demand level of PVC, chlor alkali supply enterprises are still in the stage of high opening rate. However, the demand, especially in East China, is still weakened, and the transportation in various regions is still troubled. The main contradiction between supply and demand is the epidemic situation. In the short term, the spot market continues to maintain a narrow consolidation in the pre festival market in the absence of sufficient favorable support. However, there is more uncertainty about the external market after the festival. In addition, the medium and long-term PVC market is still expected when there are still expectations for the economy and real estate. Therefore, it is suggested that the industrial chain can consider the layout on bargain hunting.