The impact of upstream raw materials on PVC

PVC生产成本，主要受煤炭、焦炭、电力、电石、原油、乙 烯、VCM等成本价格影响。此外，原盐的价格也会通过氯的价值传导对PVC的价格产 生一定程度的影响。

The production cost of PVC is mainly affected by the cost prices of coal, coke, electricity, calcium carbide, crude oil, ethylene, VCM, etc. In addition, the price of raw salt will also have a certain degree of impact on the price of PVC through the value transmission of chlorine.

1.煤炭、焦炭、电力 Coal, coke, electricity

由于我国工业用电仍以火力发电为主，焦炭也主要来源于煤炭，所以，三者的价格 基本绑定，在此逬行统一分析。根据电石法PVC的制备成本，1吨聚氯乙烯折合电力消 耗约为7000度左右，折合煤炭消耗量3吨左右，能源成本占生产成本比重超过50%,因 此，煤炭、焦炭、电力等能源的价格波动将直接影响PVC的市场价格。

Due to the fact that thermal power generation is still the main source of industrial electricity in China, and coke mainly comes from coal, the prices of the three are basically bound, and a unified analysis will be conducted here. According to the preparation cost of PVC by calcium carbide method, 1 ton of PVC is equivalent to about 7000 kilowatt hours of electricity consumption, and 3 tons of coal consumption. The energy cost accounts for more than 50% of the production cost. Therefore, the price fluctuation of coal, coke, electricity and other energy will directly affect the market price of PVC.

2.原油、乙烯、氯乙烯、—氯乙烷 Crude oil, ethylene, vinyl chloride, - chloroethane

从世界范围来讲，PVC的生产仍以乙烯法为主。受次贷危机所引发的全球性金融危 机的冲击，原油价格由148美元/桶一路跌至45美元/桶，伴随着原油价格的回落，以及我国对外实施反倾销的到期，逬口料已经开始冲击国内市场。

From a global perspective, the production of PVC still relies mainly on the ethylene method. Due to the impact of the global financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis, the price of crude oil has plummeted from $148 per barrel to $45 per barrel. With the decline in crude oil prices and the expiration of China's foreign anti-dumping measures, imports have already begun to impact the domestic market.

原油价格目前总体维持在30-50美元/桶区间内，原油价格的下跌，使得以乙烯为 原料制造PVC的成本优势明显。原油、乙烯以及进口氯乙烯(VCM)和二氯乙烷 (EDC)的价格高低，也会直接影响PVC的价格走势。另外，由于我国只对国外PVC实 施反倾销，而对VCM和EDC并未实施保护政策，国内部分PVC生产厂家可能会直接从国 外大量低价购进VCM聚合成PVC,所以，原油和VCM等上游产品价格的高低，会对国 内PVC的价格有直接影响。

The overall price of crude oil remains within the range of 30-50 US dollars per barrel, and the decline in crude oil prices has made the cost advantage of using ethylene as raw material to manufacture PVC clear. The prices of crude oil, ethylene, imported vinyl chloride (VCM) and dichloroethane (EDC) will also directly affect the price trend of PVC. In addition, due to China only implementing anti-dumping measures against foreign PVC and not implementing protective policies against VCM and EDC, some domestic PVC manufacturers may directly purchase large quantities of VCM polymerized PVC at low prices from abroad. Therefore, the price of upstream products such as crude oil and VCM will have a direct impact on the price of domestic PVC.

3.原盐 Raw salt

原盐的主要消费领域就是氯碱产品的生产，原盐电解后产生的氯部分用于生产 PVC和其他氯产品，钠部分用于生产纯碱和烧碱。虽然在PVC的生产成本中，氯并不是 一个主要影响因素，但钠部分却是烧碱和纯碱的主要成本。所以，原盐的价格会直接 影响碱产品的价格，并影响市场对碱产品的需求，而PVC和碱之间存在一个氯碱平衡问 题，间接影响PVC的供应量，从而影响其价格走势。

The main consumption area of raw salt is the production of chlor alkali products. The chlorine generated after electrolysis of raw salt is used to produce PVC and other chlorine products, while the sodium part is used to produce pure alkali and caustic soda. Although chlorine is not a major influencing factor in the production cost of PVC, the sodium component is the main cost of caustic soda and soda ash. So, the price of raw salt will directly affect the price of alkali products and affect the market demand for alkali products. There is a chlor alkali balance problem between PVC and alkali, which indirectly affects the supply of PVC and thus affects its price trend.

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