Titanium dioxide: the first quarter to maintain the upward trend, the second quarter of the optimal solution in what?

At the end of March, the sharp rise in titanium concentrate link for the current demand is slightly weak titanium dioxide link to play a strong agent in April, production links have declared up, the overall offer came to 20000 yuan / ton. Review of the operation of the domestic market in the first quarter, it can be found that nervous supply, steady increase in demand, strong cost of the tone is still maintained, and then look ahead to possible changes in the market, supply, demand and cost of the three key variables of the game or the second quarter market prices to find the optimal solution: after stabilization.

3月底钛精矿环节的大幅拉涨为当前需求略显疲软的钛白粉环节打了一剂4月的强心剂，生产环节纷纷宣涨，整体报价来到20000元/吨。回顾一季度国内市场的运行，可以发现紧张供应、稳增需求、强势成本的基调依然维持，再展望未来市场可能的变动，供应、需求与成本3个关键变量的博弈或为二季度市场价格找到最优解：涨后企稳。

The first quarter of 2021, the domestic titanium dioxide industry chain items prices rose significantly, including since July 2020 titanium dioxide, titanium concentrate has been in the upward price phase, titanium dioxide is to maintain the rhythm of the monthly executive up to the beginning of April 2021 has opened the 10th consecutive rise.

2021年第一季度国内钛白粉产业链各品目价格涨势明显，其中自2020年7月份以来钛白粉、钛精矿一直处于价格上行阶段，钛白粉更是保持每月执涨的节奏，至2021年4月初已开启了第10次连涨。

In the first quarter, the domestic and international markets continue to tight supply, demand has increased steadily, the cost side of titanium concentrate and sulfuric acid prices rose continuously, the domestic titanium dioxide market prices by this supply and demand and cost side of the strong support, to achieve a large quarterly increase.

第一季度，国内外市场供应持续偏紧，需求稳中有增，成本面钛精矿及硫酸价格连续拉涨，国内钛白粉市场价格受此供需及成本面的强势支撑，实现了较大的季度涨幅。

In the first quarter, the domestic titanium dioxide market achieved an industry-wide output of nearly one million tons, an increase of more than 37% over the same period last year, and relatively stable output movements over the past three months. In the case of continued sufficient order volume, there is order delivery pressure on enterprises, so the domestic production chain does not appear to be concentrated and long-term device shutdown maintenance. Before and after the Spring Festival and in March, there were sporadic manufacturers to carry out 7-15 days of partial plant shutdown for maintenance, and some manufacturers in the quarter due to the adjustment of environmental protection policies to reduce the current start-up load, the industry start-up rate is also affected by the aforementioned factors show high oscillation changes.

第一季度，国内钛白粉市场实现全行业产量近百万吨，较去年同期增长超37%，过去三个月的产量变动也相对稳定。在订单量持续充足的情况下，企业存在订单交付压力，因此国内生产环节并没有出现集中且长期的装置停工检修，春节前后及3月份有零星厂家陆续进行了7-15天部分装置停工检修，季度内部分地区的厂家因环保政策的调整降低了当期开工负荷，行业开工率也受前述因素影响呈现高位震荡变动。

In January-February, China's titanium dioxide exports still showed positive year-on-year growth, in line with expectations, in line with the trend of continued strong exports since the second half of 2020 performance. In terms of price, domestic and international titanium dioxide market prices are in the upward channel since the beginning of the first quarter of 2021, and the next at least 2 months will likely continue to show an upward trend.

1-2月份，我国钛白粉出口量依然表现出了同比正增长的状态，符合预期，符合自2020年下半年以来出口持续旺盛的趋势表现。价格方面，2021年第一季度初以来国内外钛白市场价格均处于上行通道中，且接下来至少2个月大概率将继续呈现上涨趋势。

This quarter will face with foreign mainstream suppliers inverted Chinese titanium dioxide export prices, the middle and end of the second quarter, there is a risk of price squeeze on foreign demand, which will affect the sustainability of China's titanium dioxide export volume growth, thus counteracting the domestic market prices. Cost side, titanium concentrate and sulfuric acid prices in May is likely to maintain strong expectations, the support for titanium dioxide prices will not turn weak in the short term, but consider the macro-level regulatory expectations, the long-term price increases may be difficult to achieve. Supply side, consider with the supply shortage of raw materials to alleviate the problem and vaccination in the global further promotion, there are foreign suppliers in the second half of the quarter to enhance the expected rate of labor, so there is also a spot supply may turn loose, at the same time the macro level, including the terminal demand growth momentum is limited.

本季度将面临与国外主流供应商倒挂的中国钛白粉出口价格，第二季度中下旬的外需存在价格挤兑风险，这将影响我国钛白粉出口量增长的持续性，从而反作用于国内市场价格。成本方面，5月份钛精矿与硫酸价格大概率维持强势预期，对钛白粉价格的支撑短期内不会转弱，但考虑宏观层面的调控预期，价格长期上涨可能难以实现。供应面，考虑随着原材料供应短缺问题的缓解以及疫苗接种在全球范围内的进一步推进，季度中下旬国外供应商开工率存在提升预期，因此现货供应也存在转宽松可能，与此同时宏观层面上，包括终端在内的需求增长动力有限。

In summary, "after stabilization" or will become the second quarter domestic titanium dioxide market price changes in the optimal solution.

综上，“涨后企稳”或将成为第二季度国内钛白粉市场价格变动的最优解。